that doesn't equate with the recent by-election results. I think polling is a rogues game at this stage of a cycle. Remember that the PM was behind before every election including 2015. I remember people saying in 2008 that he could lose Papineau which was held by a Bloc MP. Elections matter.
I seem to remember that the polling numbers were so high for the Liberals in the spring and summer of 2021 that it triggered an early “pandemic” election. The most important election since Confederation and the Normandy landing at Juno Beach.
Are you implying that the Liberals were underdogs when Trudeau called a pandemic election in 2021?
I see. That must be one of the few times in Canadian history when polls predicting a Liberal majority were only seen by pundits who were clamouring for an election campaign to cover.
As was posted two days before this drivel, corporate profits as a share of GDP have not changed much over the last 60 years; they are steady at ~10.5% of GDP ± 2.5%. It is only an increase in profits as a share of GDP that would drive an increase in the CPI - we have not seen such an increase.
Jim, when you accusing someone else of lying, you might want to stand on a base of fact yourself.
Blair appointment makes no sense...other than Trudeau continues to place no value in our National Defense . Sad day for Canada and those who are currently serving and all who have in served over Canada's storied military past .
I agree with Terry. I find Minister Blair to be steadfast, informed and dedicated to do the best job that he can. Min. Anita Anand has done a good job at whatever position she’s given and her organizational skills will help her greatly in her new role. The one I’m most unsure about is the role of Small Business to a rookie MP but definitely appreciated her emotional response to being sworn in and hopefully this bodes well for her.
Anand has done the heavy lifting but Blair has never impressed me. Since 2010 I have simply not trusted the guy to do the right thing and he never totally disappoints. Always sliding sideways is Blair.
Many thanks to Anita Anand for her many accomplishments. We all know there is still a lot of work to be done. I just hope it’s not a time of stepping back.
Kind of ironic that Minister Fraser, responsible for steady increases in permanent and temporary residents, now has to deal with the concrete results of those increases on housing availability and affordability...
What a sad comment on the countries complete lack of interest in Agriculture when it is seen as an improvement to go back to an honourable member from PEI as Ag Minister after a totally unsuitable member from Quebec. This government has no interest in the role Rural Canada and Agriculture play in keeping our land productive and our bellies full of good quality, affordable food. The thought that the current Environment minister is now calling all the shots on modern farming technology is scary.
And yet Steven Guilbeault and Chrystia Freeland are still standing. This proves that Trudeau is not taking affordability agriculture, energy and honestly most issues head-on.
PEI is all AG. Energy now falls on the environment minister another common sense adjustment. CF will now get help on the economy from Anita Anand.. Guilbault has the cojones to get things right on the environment but cons want a fight over the environment and the science which is their usual stance on anything smart.
Canadians who pay attention to little details like fiscal policy, interest rates, a looming recessionary period or the chronic level of debt and deficits will be underwhelmed by this Cabinet shuffle.
If there was a significant retooling needed around the Cabinet table, it was the Finance Ministry. The loose, easy money days are over for the foreseeable future, and a fresh start in fiscal policy and a tempering of public expectations could have been as good a reset as any other file and could find some traction amongst the electorate.
As a result, we can expect more of the same: money flushed through a fire hose in every direction, hoping some of it can cement another term in power.
and without one financial expert in his caucus you believe PP will be better at this. At least harper had an experienced finance guy at the ready when elected. PP himself has never had a real job.
It can be and should be but what I see from conservatives is they want power at any cost which includes trying to destroy the guy in charge currently with dangerous slurs and attacks. For another thing "Axe the tax" is as stupid as it comes when, in reality PP knows the consumer doesn't pay and it's proven as the best way to kill emissions per the science involved. If elected then PP has to live with a promise he can't deliver on but will tinker with to make it almost useless. That does nothing noble for Canada or Canadians
All the parties aspire for power. Either through winning a mandate from the electorate or through persuasion by the reading and redrafting of legislation. The Prime Minister has just done a major overhaul of Cabinet in an attempt to turn a rudderless, moribund and gaffe a minute government around in order to turn bad polling numbers around and cling to power.
The gaffe a minute is just BS created by the cons in their character assassination policy Towards the PM. I outlined the legislation h has passed which has changed Canada for the better. Now the the heavy lifting has been done the Libs will be out there harvesting votes from their efforts and putting PP back down in the Trump sewer he came from. RW authoritarian govt is not needed in Canada and won't happen just because harper promotes it
I guess the first question is "who is the financial expert in Trudeau's cabinet or caucus?" I sure as the dickens can't spot one. The second question is, "given the cult of personality Justin has built up around himself, what difference does it make whether any of his ministers or caucus members can even tie their own shoes. let alone understand their briefs?"
What real job did Justin hold - substitute drama teacher and snowboard instructor are... unusual... qualifications, but perhaps not disqualifying?
It’s always fascinating how partisans can take jabs with “never had a real job” talking points but fail to look around and see how close that might boomerang back to the sender.
Some of the biggest practitioners of greedflation these days are union negotiators dialling in wage settlements and perks that will be baked into the cost of government for ever. 15% increases for a 3 year contract? There are many minimum wage earners who are being hit hard with inflationary pressures that could use a taste of that.
As I understand it, the "greedflation" argument (such as it is) is that capitalists (the greedy, rapacious bastards) are pushing up prices as hard as they can to increase their profits, and this is causing inflation.
The first question is: why has this started now, and not (say) two years ago, or five, or twenty? Are yesterday's capitalists less greedy and rapacious, or today's moreso, and what caused the change?
I don't think there is an answer that supports the greedflation paradigm, but let's look at data:
If you bother to link, you may have to fiddle to get the same output I did - I was looking at current (nominal) dollars on a quarterly basis from 1961 to date (the furthest I could go back in StatsCan data without spending more effort than this is worth). I think it's reasonable to assume that corporate profits as a share of GDP is an indicator of the greedy bastards' ability to inflict inflation on the rest of us. Using nominal dollars means we don't have to argue about inflation.
The highest recorded Profit to GDP ratio was Q1 2008 at 16.0% (note that's within the last twenty years, so your bombastic claim is falsified). The next highest were in Q2 1974 and Q3 2022 - both at 15.3%. Over a reasonable period, what we are seeing today from the greedy bastards in not unusual.
Over the ~62 year period of record profits as a share of GDP average 10.5%, with a standard deviation of 2.5% (quarterly). The annual average over 2022 was 13.7% (or ~1.2 std dev above the mean) the figure for the most-recent quarter (Q1 2023) is 7.5%, or about 1.2 std dev below the mean.
C'est un ministère jeune. Il n'y a eu que 11 ministres en incluant Mme St-Onge à ce jour. À la direction des Sociétés d'État les Québécoises sont plutôt rares.
As for "regressive provincial premiers" I think that you need to understand that not all of we Canadians think that "progressive" is a good adjective for a politician, particularly when it is used to describe people with wild-eyed and economy busting plans. Well, they say they have plans but what they really have is fuzzy not at all well thought out aspirations.
Denis, I think that you may be on to something with respect to some, repeat some of the Conservative premiers but I absolutely do not think that all, let alone most of them fall into that category.
On the other hand, I absolutely am convinced that the current federal administration, including their NDP supporters are absolutely described as having fuzzy, not at well thought out aspirations. In fact, in terms of certain of the federal ministers (very much including numero uno) I am convinced that they are not only described in that fashion but that they have a great deal of absolute malice toward my province of Alberta. Malice.
The federal government’s continued anti-Alberta stance, and that their climate change strategy is a glimpse into how the Liberals will be running the next election. Alberta bad… Liberals good.
The problem with that is that that strategy is really likely to inflame the separatist sentiment here. Truthfully, I have a great deal of sympathy with that sentiment. Having said that, it is my absolute preference to remain within Canada but if JT and his Sunny Ways Crew dictate otherwise, well, we will see ....
If his approach is to say, effectively, that we are not good Canadians, well, we may just accept his description and stop trying to be good Canadians.
Oh, and if we do go that would mean that all the ROC would have JT, JS and the national debt. Certainly an exciting prospect for those who vote for JT and JS; as for other Canadians, well, you had better deal with those folks who vote Liberal or NDP.
Hmm. I keep hearing that "malice" which in my view is brainwashing from the very active RW in AB. TMX is not malice. NGL plant is not malice. And both projects are export dollars in abundance. Some malice
Canada's lost decade, hopefully we can rebound faster than the Japanese.
The good news is that there are three pillars of inflation/cost of living: monetary, fiscal and regulatory policy. None of these pillars have been managed/influenced well by any ministers in this government. Anyone who fallows can make significant gains with only marginal changes on each of them
Bill Blair as minister of defence is just dumb. At this stage we do not need another man dealing (or not dealing) with sexual assault in the military. Will he start to read his emails and his memos? Let's hope so. Anand was doing a good job and when she spoke it was not just all talking points. Why do the capable strong women get turfed?
I would say that taking over one million people out of poverty, cheap day care for families, progress on environmental issues, and several other initiatives. The cons would have filtered that money to corporate friends as all the other con premiers do. Fear not this PM will not lose to crypto pierre even with his sole agenda of character assassination. I and millions more will stick with this PM.
Is the Anand appointment a promotion or demotion? How is Treasury Board viewed as an economic portfolio that voters will respond to? Labour change makes no sense, waste of good minister.
I was surprised to hear about Anand too - that’s a good question. I read a potentially cynical suggestion on The Line’s dispatch today (think it might be behind the paywall so didn’t link but check out all their good work on Substack) that it might be that she’s getting too much good exposure as defence minister and rumours were starting about her leadership potential. She’s too competent to remove but Treasury is a quiet, not too public file. So maybe both?? :(
I’ve heard that AA had leadership aspirations for some time. I doubt that JT would be worried about her succeeding in another portfolio. She seems excited about her new role and one never knows if she’ll make some progress in getting the program money out more efficiently and faster-that in itself would be amazing
I heard one smart commentary yesterday about Anita Anand's move to Treasury. That ministerial portfolio is the COO equivalent working in tandem with finance to operationalize effectively the programs that the government is focused on.
I wish we had more insightful journalists who go beyond the obvious Polievre pablum and dig deep to provide Canadians with constructive and meaningful political analysis.
Sadly a majority have decided to jump on the sarcastic, cynical and negative bandwagon.
"Those might be the two most encouraging moves among dozens, both for Liberals who hope “good communicators” won’t turn out to be a sad joke, and for citizens who hope strong administrators might, even if only occasionally, be put in charge of challenging files." I gotta wonder how many such citizens you'd find amongst the electorate? Who could identify "strong administrators" and/or "challenging files"? Couple dozen?
I admit he's one of the government's mysteries to me. Affable is certainly a good word for him. I hear his specialization in law was actually fairly narrow, and he clearly didn't feel he could rock any boats, so...off he goes, back to McGill one presumes.
I mean, my goooodness https://twitter.com/DavidColetto/status/1684202822944845828
that doesn't equate with the recent by-election results. I think polling is a rogues game at this stage of a cycle. Remember that the PM was behind before every election including 2015. I remember people saying in 2008 that he could lose Papineau which was held by a Bloc MP. Elections matter.
I seem to remember that the polling numbers were so high for the Liberals in the spring and summer of 2021 that it triggered an early “pandemic” election. The most important election since Confederation and the Normandy landing at Juno Beach.
Remembering and looking at actual numbers are two different things
Are you implying that the Liberals were underdogs when Trudeau called a pandemic election in 2021?
I see. That must be one of the few times in Canadian history when polls predicting a Liberal majority were only seen by pundits who were clamouring for an election campaign to cover.
Odd that Pierre Poilievre believes axing the tax will significantly bring down the CPI when corporate profits contribute from 30 to 60% of CPI
Pierre axes facts!!
As was posted two days before this drivel, corporate profits as a share of GDP have not changed much over the last 60 years; they are steady at ~10.5% of GDP ± 2.5%. It is only an increase in profits as a share of GDP that would drive an increase in the CPI - we have not seen such an increase.
Jim, when you accusing someone else of lying, you might want to stand on a base of fact yourself.
As GDP rises in absolute $, driven by costs of goods and services rising by volume and price increases inflation follows
My source is the Federal Reserve Board of the US feel free to differ.
Blair appointment makes no sense...other than Trudeau continues to place no value in our National Defense . Sad day for Canada and those who are currently serving and all who have in served over Canada's storied military past .
Anita Anand has done the have lifting and things are moving along. Blair is a law and order guy and will keep things under control
Sorry Terry...he should have retired. Nice guy but does not produce results.
I agree with Terry. I find Minister Blair to be steadfast, informed and dedicated to do the best job that he can. Min. Anita Anand has done a good job at whatever position she’s given and her organizational skills will help her greatly in her new role. The one I’m most unsure about is the role of Small Business to a rookie MP but definitely appreciated her emotional response to being sworn in and hopefully this bodes well for her.
Anand has done the heavy lifting but Blair has never impressed me. Since 2010 I have simply not trusted the guy to do the right thing and he never totally disappoints. Always sliding sideways is Blair.
Many thanks to Anita Anand for her many accomplishments. We all know there is still a lot of work to be done. I just hope it’s not a time of stepping back.
Kind of ironic that Minister Fraser, responsible for steady increases in permanent and temporary residents, now has to deal with the concrete results of those increases on housing availability and affordability...
Good background but he will need courage to deal with provincial premiers dragging their feet on new housing mandates.
its obvious he's a "get it done" kind of guy and will probably badger and/or embarrass the premiers to get things done. He's young and energetic
I expect that he will do well in this role and will set himself up nicely to run for Leader of the Liberal Party after JT steps down.
"He came to office promising real change. Increasingly what’s real is what doesn’t change." Well put.
What a sad comment on the countries complete lack of interest in Agriculture when it is seen as an improvement to go back to an honourable member from PEI as Ag Minister after a totally unsuitable member from Quebec. This government has no interest in the role Rural Canada and Agriculture play in keeping our land productive and our bellies full of good quality, affordable food. The thought that the current Environment minister is now calling all the shots on modern farming technology is scary.
And yet Steven Guilbeault and Chrystia Freeland are still standing. This proves that Trudeau is not taking affordability agriculture, energy and honestly most issues head-on.
PEI is all AG. Energy now falls on the environment minister another common sense adjustment. CF will now get help on the economy from Anita Anand.. Guilbault has the cojones to get things right on the environment but cons want a fight over the environment and the science which is their usual stance on anything smart.
Canadians who pay attention to little details like fiscal policy, interest rates, a looming recessionary period or the chronic level of debt and deficits will be underwhelmed by this Cabinet shuffle.
If there was a significant retooling needed around the Cabinet table, it was the Finance Ministry. The loose, easy money days are over for the foreseeable future, and a fresh start in fiscal policy and a tempering of public expectations could have been as good a reset as any other file and could find some traction amongst the electorate.
As a result, we can expect more of the same: money flushed through a fire hose in every direction, hoping some of it can cement another term in power.
and without one financial expert in his caucus you believe PP will be better at this. At least harper had an experienced finance guy at the ready when elected. PP himself has never had a real job.
Despite our numerous partisan differences, I would hope that we can agree that entering politics is a noble calling.
I have utmost respect for those who head to Ottawa, all who have high expectations from their constituents to meet every election cycle.
It can be and should be but what I see from conservatives is they want power at any cost which includes trying to destroy the guy in charge currently with dangerous slurs and attacks. For another thing "Axe the tax" is as stupid as it comes when, in reality PP knows the consumer doesn't pay and it's proven as the best way to kill emissions per the science involved. If elected then PP has to live with a promise he can't deliver on but will tinker with to make it almost useless. That does nothing noble for Canada or Canadians
All the parties aspire for power. Either through winning a mandate from the electorate or through persuasion by the reading and redrafting of legislation. The Prime Minister has just done a major overhaul of Cabinet in an attempt to turn a rudderless, moribund and gaffe a minute government around in order to turn bad polling numbers around and cling to power.
The gaffe a minute is just BS created by the cons in their character assassination policy Towards the PM. I outlined the legislation h has passed which has changed Canada for the better. Now the the heavy lifting has been done the Libs will be out there harvesting votes from their efforts and putting PP back down in the Trump sewer he came from. RW authoritarian govt is not needed in Canada and won't happen just because harper promotes it
I guess the first question is "who is the financial expert in Trudeau's cabinet or caucus?" I sure as the dickens can't spot one. The second question is, "given the cult of personality Justin has built up around himself, what difference does it make whether any of his ministers or caucus members can even tie their own shoes. let alone understand their briefs?"
What real job did Justin hold - substitute drama teacher and snowboard instructor are... unusual... qualifications, but perhaps not disqualifying?
Touche on that post.
It’s always fascinating how partisans can take jabs with “never had a real job” talking points but fail to look around and see how close that might boomerang back to the sender.
Why do all parties save one ignore greedflation?
Maybe because "greedflation" is nonsense on stilts?
With corporate profits at 20 year highs and showing little sign of slowing.. Prove me wrong?? Lol
Some of the biggest practitioners of greedflation these days are union negotiators dialling in wage settlements and perks that will be baked into the cost of government for ever. 15% increases for a 3 year contract? There are many minimum wage earners who are being hit hard with inflationary pressures that could use a taste of that.
As I understand it, the "greedflation" argument (such as it is) is that capitalists (the greedy, rapacious bastards) are pushing up prices as hard as they can to increase their profits, and this is causing inflation.
The first question is: why has this started now, and not (say) two years ago, or five, or twenty? Are yesterday's capitalists less greedy and rapacious, or today's moreso, and what caused the change?
I don't think there is an answer that supports the greedflation paradigm, but let's look at data:
Have a look at pre-tax corporate profits
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610012501
and Canadian GDP
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610010401
If you bother to link, you may have to fiddle to get the same output I did - I was looking at current (nominal) dollars on a quarterly basis from 1961 to date (the furthest I could go back in StatsCan data without spending more effort than this is worth). I think it's reasonable to assume that corporate profits as a share of GDP is an indicator of the greedy bastards' ability to inflict inflation on the rest of us. Using nominal dollars means we don't have to argue about inflation.
The highest recorded Profit to GDP ratio was Q1 2008 at 16.0% (note that's within the last twenty years, so your bombastic claim is falsified). The next highest were in Q2 1974 and Q3 2022 - both at 15.3%. Over a reasonable period, what we are seeing today from the greedy bastards in not unusual.
Over the ~62 year period of record profits as a share of GDP average 10.5%, with a standard deviation of 2.5% (quarterly). The annual average over 2022 was 13.7% (or ~1.2 std dev above the mean) the figure for the most-recent quarter (Q1 2023) is 7.5%, or about 1.2 std dev below the mean.
LOL indeed.
Where did inflation come from if not from increased profits ?
The supply of dollars increased faster than the supply of goods and services available to us.
Most people working in Canada ever. I see fantastic growth ahead with new immigrants bringing money with them along with job skills.
Re: Quebec ministers only at Heritage. Remember Sheila Copps, Bev Oda, James Moore, Shelley Glover ?
I do! Ça commence à remonter dans le temps...
C'est un ministère jeune. Il n'y a eu que 11 ministres en incluant Mme St-Onge à ce jour. À la direction des Sociétés d'État les Québécoises sont plutôt rares.
The real challenge to any future govt is how to effectively deal with a China and Russia globally and regressive provincial premiers domestically.
Jim, I agree re China and Russia.
As for "regressive provincial premiers" I think that you need to understand that not all of we Canadians think that "progressive" is a good adjective for a politician, particularly when it is used to describe people with wild-eyed and economy busting plans. Well, they say they have plans but what they really have is fuzzy not at all well thought out aspirations.
I think that your final sentence is a perfect description of most of the Conservative/regressive premiers in our country.
Denis, I think that you may be on to something with respect to some, repeat some of the Conservative premiers but I absolutely do not think that all, let alone most of them fall into that category.
On the other hand, I absolutely am convinced that the current federal administration, including their NDP supporters are absolutely described as having fuzzy, not at well thought out aspirations. In fact, in terms of certain of the federal ministers (very much including numero uno) I am convinced that they are not only described in that fashion but that they have a great deal of absolute malice toward my province of Alberta. Malice.
The federal government’s continued anti-Alberta stance, and that their climate change strategy is a glimpse into how the Liberals will be running the next election. Alberta bad… Liberals good.
Carole, I agree.
The problem with that is that that strategy is really likely to inflame the separatist sentiment here. Truthfully, I have a great deal of sympathy with that sentiment. Having said that, it is my absolute preference to remain within Canada but if JT and his Sunny Ways Crew dictate otherwise, well, we will see ....
If his approach is to say, effectively, that we are not good Canadians, well, we may just accept his description and stop trying to be good Canadians.
Oh, and if we do go that would mean that all the ROC would have JT, JS and the national debt. Certainly an exciting prospect for those who vote for JT and JS; as for other Canadians, well, you had better deal with those folks who vote Liberal or NDP.
Hmm. I keep hearing that "malice" which in my view is brainwashing from the very active RW in AB. TMX is not malice. NGL plant is not malice. And both projects are export dollars in abundance. Some malice
Canada's lost decade, hopefully we can rebound faster than the Japanese.
The good news is that there are three pillars of inflation/cost of living: monetary, fiscal and regulatory policy. None of these pillars have been managed/influenced well by any ministers in this government. Anyone who fallows can make significant gains with only marginal changes on each of them
Bill Blair as minister of defence is just dumb. At this stage we do not need another man dealing (or not dealing) with sexual assault in the military. Will he start to read his emails and his memos? Let's hope so. Anand was doing a good job and when she spoke it was not just all talking points. Why do the capable strong women get turfed?
I would say that taking over one million people out of poverty, cheap day care for families, progress on environmental issues, and several other initiatives. The cons would have filtered that money to corporate friends as all the other con premiers do. Fear not this PM will not lose to crypto pierre even with his sole agenda of character assassination. I and millions more will stick with this PM.
May be conspiratorial biast but was Anand becoming a leadership rival for the PM given his apparent decision to run in the next (tbd) election?
Is the Anand appointment a promotion or demotion? How is Treasury Board viewed as an economic portfolio that voters will respond to? Labour change makes no sense, waste of good minister.
I was surprised to hear about Anand too - that’s a good question. I read a potentially cynical suggestion on The Line’s dispatch today (think it might be behind the paywall so didn’t link but check out all their good work on Substack) that it might be that she’s getting too much good exposure as defence minister and rumours were starting about her leadership potential. She’s too competent to remove but Treasury is a quiet, not too public file. So maybe both?? :(
I’ve heard that AA had leadership aspirations for some time. I doubt that JT would be worried about her succeeding in another portfolio. She seems excited about her new role and one never knows if she’ll make some progress in getting the program money out more efficiently and faster-that in itself would be amazing
I heard one smart commentary yesterday about Anita Anand's move to Treasury. That ministerial portfolio is the COO equivalent working in tandem with finance to operationalize effectively the programs that the government is focused on.
I wish we had more insightful journalists who go beyond the obvious Polievre pablum and dig deep to provide Canadians with constructive and meaningful political analysis.
Sadly a majority have decided to jump on the sarcastic, cynical and negative bandwagon.
Still hoping though...
"Those might be the two most encouraging moves among dozens, both for Liberals who hope “good communicators” won’t turn out to be a sad joke, and for citizens who hope strong administrators might, even if only occasionally, be put in charge of challenging files." I gotta wonder how many such citizens you'd find amongst the electorate? Who could identify "strong administrators" and/or "challenging files"? Couple dozen?
What about the affable David Lametti - what's the story there?
I admit he's one of the government's mysteries to me. Affable is certainly a good word for him. I hear his specialization in law was actually fairly narrow, and he clearly didn't feel he could rock any boats, so...off he goes, back to McGill one presumes.