As was posted two days before this drivel, corporate profits as a share of GDP have not changed much over the last 60 years; they are steady at ~10.5% of GDP ± 2.5%. It is only an increase in profits as a share of GDP that would drive an increase in the CPI - we have not seen such an increase.
Jim, when you accusing someone else of lying, you might want to stand on a base of fact yourself.
I seem to remember that the polling numbers were so high for the Liberals in the spring and summer of 2021 that it triggered an early “pandemic” election. The most important election since Confederation and the Normandy landing at Juno Beach.
Are you implying that the Liberals were underdogs when Trudeau called a pandemic election in 2021?
I see. That must be one of the few times in Canadian history when polls predicting a Liberal majority were only seen by pundits who were clamouring for an election campaign to cover.
Blair appointment makes no sense...other than Trudeau continues to place no value in our National Defense . Sad day for Canada and those who are currently serving and all who have in served over Canada's storied military past .
I agree with Terry. I find Minister Blair to be steadfast, informed and dedicated to do the best job that he can. Min. Anita Anand has done a good job at whatever position she’s given and her organizational skills will help her greatly in her new role. The one I’m most unsure about is the role of Small Business to a rookie MP but definitely appreciated her emotional response to being sworn in and hopefully this bodes well for her.
Anand has done the heavy lifting but Blair has never impressed me. Since 2010 I have simply not trusted the guy to do the right thing and he never totally disappoints. Always sliding sideways is Blair.
Many thanks to Anita Anand for her many accomplishments. We all know there is still a lot of work to be done. I just hope it’s not a time of stepping back.
Kind of ironic that Minister Fraser, responsible for steady increases in permanent and temporary residents, now has to deal with the concrete results of those increases on housing availability and affordability...
What a sad comment on the countries complete lack of interest in Agriculture when it is seen as an improvement to go back to an honourable member from PEI as Ag Minister after a totally unsuitable member from Quebec. This government has no interest in the role Rural Canada and Agriculture play in keeping our land productive and our bellies full of good quality, affordable food. The thought that the current Environment minister is now calling all the shots on modern farming technology is scary.
And yet Steven Guilbeault and Chrystia Freeland are still standing. This proves that Trudeau is not taking affordability agriculture, energy and honestly most issues head-on.
Canadians who pay attention to little details like fiscal policy, interest rates, a looming recessionary period or the chronic level of debt and deficits will be underwhelmed by this Cabinet shuffle.
If there was a significant retooling needed around the Cabinet table, it was the Finance Ministry. The loose, easy money days are over for the foreseeable future, and a fresh start in fiscal policy and a tempering of public expectations could have been as good a reset as any other file and could find some traction amongst the electorate.
As a result, we can expect more of the same: money flushed through a fire hose in every direction, hoping some of it can cement another term in power.
Some of the biggest practitioners of greedflation these days are union negotiators dialling in wage settlements and perks that will be baked into the cost of government for ever. 15% increases for a 3 year contract? There are many minimum wage earners who are being hit hard with inflationary pressures that could use a taste of that.
As I understand it, the "greedflation" argument (such as it is) is that capitalists (the greedy, rapacious bastards) are pushing up prices as hard as they can to increase their profits, and this is causing inflation.
The first question is: why has this started now, and not (say) two years ago, or five, or twenty? Are yesterday's capitalists less greedy and rapacious, or today's moreso, and what caused the change?
I don't think there is an answer that supports the greedflation paradigm, but let's look at data:
If you bother to link, you may have to fiddle to get the same output I did - I was looking at current (nominal) dollars on a quarterly basis from 1961 to date (the furthest I could go back in StatsCan data without spending more effort than this is worth). I think it's reasonable to assume that corporate profits as a share of GDP is an indicator of the greedy bastards' ability to inflict inflation on the rest of us. Using nominal dollars means we don't have to argue about inflation.
The highest recorded Profit to GDP ratio was Q1 2008 at 16.0% (note that's within the last twenty years, so your bombastic claim is falsified). The next highest were in Q2 1974 and Q3 2022 - both at 15.3%. Over a reasonable period, what we are seeing today from the greedy bastards in not unusual.
Over the ~62 year period of record profits as a share of GDP average 10.5%, with a standard deviation of 2.5% (quarterly). The annual average over 2022 was 13.7% (or ~1.2 std dev above the mean) the figure for the most-recent quarter (Q1 2023) is 7.5%, or about 1.2 std dev below the mean.
All the parties aspire for power. Either through winning a mandate from the electorate or through persuasion by the reading and redrafting of legislation. The Prime Minister has just done a major overhaul of Cabinet in an attempt to turn a rudderless, moribund and gaffe a minute government around in order to turn bad polling numbers around and cling to power.
I guess the first question is "who is the financial expert in Trudeau's cabinet or caucus?" I sure as the dickens can't spot one. The second question is, "given the cult of personality Justin has built up around himself, what difference does it make whether any of his ministers or caucus members can even tie their own shoes. let alone understand their briefs?"
What real job did Justin hold - substitute drama teacher and snowboard instructor are... unusual... qualifications, but perhaps not disqualifying?
It’s always fascinating how partisans can take jabs with “never had a real job” talking points but fail to look around and see how close that might boomerang back to the sender.
C'est un ministère jeune. Il n'y a eu que 11 ministres en incluant Mme St-Onge à ce jour. À la direction des Sociétés d'État les Québécoises sont plutôt rares.
As for "regressive provincial premiers" I think that you need to understand that not all of we Canadians think that "progressive" is a good adjective for a politician, particularly when it is used to describe people with wild-eyed and economy busting plans. Well, they say they have plans but what they really have is fuzzy not at all well thought out aspirations.
Denis, I think that you may be on to something with respect to some, repeat some of the Conservative premiers but I absolutely do not think that all, let alone most of them fall into that category.
On the other hand, I absolutely am convinced that the current federal administration, including their NDP supporters are absolutely described as having fuzzy, not at well thought out aspirations. In fact, in terms of certain of the federal ministers (very much including numero uno) I am convinced that they are not only described in that fashion but that they have a great deal of absolute malice toward my province of Alberta. Malice.
The federal government’s continued anti-Alberta stance, and that their climate change strategy is a glimpse into how the Liberals will be running the next election. Alberta bad… Liberals good.
The problem with that is that that strategy is really likely to inflame the separatist sentiment here. Truthfully, I have a great deal of sympathy with that sentiment. Having said that, it is my absolute preference to remain within Canada but if JT and his Sunny Ways Crew dictate otherwise, well, we will see ....
If his approach is to say, effectively, that we are not good Canadians, well, we may just accept his description and stop trying to be good Canadians.
Oh, and if we do go that would mean that all the ROC would have JT, JS and the national debt. Certainly an exciting prospect for those who vote for JT and JS; as for other Canadians, well, you had better deal with those folks who vote Liberal or NDP.
Canada's lost decade, hopefully we can rebound faster than the Japanese.
The good news is that there are three pillars of inflation/cost of living: monetary, fiscal and regulatory policy. None of these pillars have been managed/influenced well by any ministers in this government. Anyone who fallows can make significant gains with only marginal changes on each of them
Bill Blair as minister of defence is just dumb. At this stage we do not need another man dealing (or not dealing) with sexual assault in the military. Will he start to read his emails and his memos? Let's hope so. Anand was doing a good job and when she spoke it was not just all talking points. Why do the capable strong women get turfed?
Is the Anand appointment a promotion or demotion? How is Treasury Board viewed as an economic portfolio that voters will respond to? Labour change makes no sense, waste of good minister.
I was surprised to hear about Anand too - that’s a good question. I read a potentially cynical suggestion on The Line’s dispatch today (think it might be behind the paywall so didn’t link but check out all their good work on Substack) that it might be that she’s getting too much good exposure as defence minister and rumours were starting about her leadership potential. She’s too competent to remove but Treasury is a quiet, not too public file. So maybe both?? :(
I’ve heard that AA had leadership aspirations for some time. I doubt that JT would be worried about her succeeding in another portfolio. She seems excited about her new role and one never knows if she’ll make some progress in getting the program money out more efficiently and faster-that in itself would be amazing
"Those might be the two most encouraging moves among dozens, both for Liberals who hope “good communicators” won’t turn out to be a sad joke, and for citizens who hope strong administrators might, even if only occasionally, be put in charge of challenging files." I gotta wonder how many such citizens you'd find amongst the electorate? Who could identify "strong administrators" and/or "challenging files"? Couple dozen?
I admit he's one of the government's mysteries to me. Affable is certainly a good word for him. I hear his specialization in law was actually fairly narrow, and he clearly didn't feel he could rock any boats, so...off he goes, back to McGill one presumes.
I have a different question about having a Canadian Heritage minister or for that matter having a Canadian Heritage ministry at all. If we are post national, why do we care about Canadian heritage? We are pulling down statues, burning churches and bemoaning the non-woke history of our Canadian parents; and yet we are and obsessing about Canadian content.
Bill Blair to National Defence seems to be 2 steps back from the gov’s progressive agenda - and his enforcement background is a square peg in a round hole in regards to how his Toronto experience align.
Well, I’m glad that we have the context of “The army you have”. Coyne on the other hand, is so deep into his cups that he’s forgetting this, and throwing the entire cabinet out with the bathwater. Only the other day, he was lamenting the lack of gravitas of the other side. Or was it Wells? I agree, which is why I’m not awfulizing this shuffle. It’s comparatively far better.
The grown-ups stay in charge, the retirees retire, the fresh new faces get their chance, and the dufuses get their comeuppance. Is that so bad?
I feel positively buoyant about our bright new future!
I mean, my goooodness https://twitter.com/DavidColetto/status/1684202822944845828
Odd that Pierre Poilievre believes axing the tax will significantly bring down the CPI when corporate profits contribute from 30 to 60% of CPI
Pierre axes facts!!
As was posted two days before this drivel, corporate profits as a share of GDP have not changed much over the last 60 years; they are steady at ~10.5% of GDP ± 2.5%. It is only an increase in profits as a share of GDP that would drive an increase in the CPI - we have not seen such an increase.
Jim, when you accusing someone else of lying, you might want to stand on a base of fact yourself.
As GDP rises in absolute $, driven by costs of goods and services rising by volume and price increases inflation follows
My source is the Federal Reserve Board of the US feel free to differ.
I seem to remember that the polling numbers were so high for the Liberals in the spring and summer of 2021 that it triggered an early “pandemic” election. The most important election since Confederation and the Normandy landing at Juno Beach.
Are you implying that the Liberals were underdogs when Trudeau called a pandemic election in 2021?
I see. That must be one of the few times in Canadian history when polls predicting a Liberal majority were only seen by pundits who were clamouring for an election campaign to cover.
Blair appointment makes no sense...other than Trudeau continues to place no value in our National Defense . Sad day for Canada and those who are currently serving and all who have in served over Canada's storied military past .
Sorry Terry...he should have retired. Nice guy but does not produce results.
I agree with Terry. I find Minister Blair to be steadfast, informed and dedicated to do the best job that he can. Min. Anita Anand has done a good job at whatever position she’s given and her organizational skills will help her greatly in her new role. The one I’m most unsure about is the role of Small Business to a rookie MP but definitely appreciated her emotional response to being sworn in and hopefully this bodes well for her.
Anand has done the heavy lifting but Blair has never impressed me. Since 2010 I have simply not trusted the guy to do the right thing and he never totally disappoints. Always sliding sideways is Blair.
Many thanks to Anita Anand for her many accomplishments. We all know there is still a lot of work to be done. I just hope it’s not a time of stepping back.
Kind of ironic that Minister Fraser, responsible for steady increases in permanent and temporary residents, now has to deal with the concrete results of those increases on housing availability and affordability...
Good background but he will need courage to deal with provincial premiers dragging their feet on new housing mandates.
I expect that he will do well in this role and will set himself up nicely to run for Leader of the Liberal Party after JT steps down.
What a sad comment on the countries complete lack of interest in Agriculture when it is seen as an improvement to go back to an honourable member from PEI as Ag Minister after a totally unsuitable member from Quebec. This government has no interest in the role Rural Canada and Agriculture play in keeping our land productive and our bellies full of good quality, affordable food. The thought that the current Environment minister is now calling all the shots on modern farming technology is scary.
And yet Steven Guilbeault and Chrystia Freeland are still standing. This proves that Trudeau is not taking affordability agriculture, energy and honestly most issues head-on.
Canadians who pay attention to little details like fiscal policy, interest rates, a looming recessionary period or the chronic level of debt and deficits will be underwhelmed by this Cabinet shuffle.
If there was a significant retooling needed around the Cabinet table, it was the Finance Ministry. The loose, easy money days are over for the foreseeable future, and a fresh start in fiscal policy and a tempering of public expectations could have been as good a reset as any other file and could find some traction amongst the electorate.
As a result, we can expect more of the same: money flushed through a fire hose in every direction, hoping some of it can cement another term in power.
Why do all parties save one ignore greedflation?
Maybe because "greedflation" is nonsense on stilts?
With corporate profits at 20 year highs and showing little sign of slowing.. Prove me wrong?? Lol
Some of the biggest practitioners of greedflation these days are union negotiators dialling in wage settlements and perks that will be baked into the cost of government for ever. 15% increases for a 3 year contract? There are many minimum wage earners who are being hit hard with inflationary pressures that could use a taste of that.
As I understand it, the "greedflation" argument (such as it is) is that capitalists (the greedy, rapacious bastards) are pushing up prices as hard as they can to increase their profits, and this is causing inflation.
The first question is: why has this started now, and not (say) two years ago, or five, or twenty? Are yesterday's capitalists less greedy and rapacious, or today's moreso, and what caused the change?
I don't think there is an answer that supports the greedflation paradigm, but let's look at data:
Have a look at pre-tax corporate profits
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610012501
and Canadian GDP
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610010401
If you bother to link, you may have to fiddle to get the same output I did - I was looking at current (nominal) dollars on a quarterly basis from 1961 to date (the furthest I could go back in StatsCan data without spending more effort than this is worth). I think it's reasonable to assume that corporate profits as a share of GDP is an indicator of the greedy bastards' ability to inflict inflation on the rest of us. Using nominal dollars means we don't have to argue about inflation.
The highest recorded Profit to GDP ratio was Q1 2008 at 16.0% (note that's within the last twenty years, so your bombastic claim is falsified). The next highest were in Q2 1974 and Q3 2022 - both at 15.3%. Over a reasonable period, what we are seeing today from the greedy bastards in not unusual.
Over the ~62 year period of record profits as a share of GDP average 10.5%, with a standard deviation of 2.5% (quarterly). The annual average over 2022 was 13.7% (or ~1.2 std dev above the mean) the figure for the most-recent quarter (Q1 2023) is 7.5%, or about 1.2 std dev below the mean.
LOL indeed.
Where did inflation come from if not from increased profits ?
The supply of dollars increased faster than the supply of goods and services available to us.
Despite our numerous partisan differences, I would hope that we can agree that entering politics is a noble calling.
I have utmost respect for those who head to Ottawa, all who have high expectations from their constituents to meet every election cycle.
All the parties aspire for power. Either through winning a mandate from the electorate or through persuasion by the reading and redrafting of legislation. The Prime Minister has just done a major overhaul of Cabinet in an attempt to turn a rudderless, moribund and gaffe a minute government around in order to turn bad polling numbers around and cling to power.
I guess the first question is "who is the financial expert in Trudeau's cabinet or caucus?" I sure as the dickens can't spot one. The second question is, "given the cult of personality Justin has built up around himself, what difference does it make whether any of his ministers or caucus members can even tie their own shoes. let alone understand their briefs?"
What real job did Justin hold - substitute drama teacher and snowboard instructor are... unusual... qualifications, but perhaps not disqualifying?
Touche on that post.
It’s always fascinating how partisans can take jabs with “never had a real job” talking points but fail to look around and see how close that might boomerang back to the sender.
Re: Quebec ministers only at Heritage. Remember Sheila Copps, Bev Oda, James Moore, Shelley Glover ?
I do! Ça commence à remonter dans le temps...
C'est un ministère jeune. Il n'y a eu que 11 ministres en incluant Mme St-Onge à ce jour. À la direction des Sociétés d'État les Québécoises sont plutôt rares.
The real challenge to any future govt is how to effectively deal with a China and Russia globally and regressive provincial premiers domestically.
Jim, I agree re China and Russia.
As for "regressive provincial premiers" I think that you need to understand that not all of we Canadians think that "progressive" is a good adjective for a politician, particularly when it is used to describe people with wild-eyed and economy busting plans. Well, they say they have plans but what they really have is fuzzy not at all well thought out aspirations.
I think that your final sentence is a perfect description of most of the Conservative/regressive premiers in our country.
Denis, I think that you may be on to something with respect to some, repeat some of the Conservative premiers but I absolutely do not think that all, let alone most of them fall into that category.
On the other hand, I absolutely am convinced that the current federal administration, including their NDP supporters are absolutely described as having fuzzy, not at well thought out aspirations. In fact, in terms of certain of the federal ministers (very much including numero uno) I am convinced that they are not only described in that fashion but that they have a great deal of absolute malice toward my province of Alberta. Malice.
The federal government’s continued anti-Alberta stance, and that their climate change strategy is a glimpse into how the Liberals will be running the next election. Alberta bad… Liberals good.
Carole, I agree.
The problem with that is that that strategy is really likely to inflame the separatist sentiment here. Truthfully, I have a great deal of sympathy with that sentiment. Having said that, it is my absolute preference to remain within Canada but if JT and his Sunny Ways Crew dictate otherwise, well, we will see ....
If his approach is to say, effectively, that we are not good Canadians, well, we may just accept his description and stop trying to be good Canadians.
Oh, and if we do go that would mean that all the ROC would have JT, JS and the national debt. Certainly an exciting prospect for those who vote for JT and JS; as for other Canadians, well, you had better deal with those folks who vote Liberal or NDP.
Canada's lost decade, hopefully we can rebound faster than the Japanese.
The good news is that there are three pillars of inflation/cost of living: monetary, fiscal and regulatory policy. None of these pillars have been managed/influenced well by any ministers in this government. Anyone who fallows can make significant gains with only marginal changes on each of them
Bill Blair as minister of defence is just dumb. At this stage we do not need another man dealing (or not dealing) with sexual assault in the military. Will he start to read his emails and his memos? Let's hope so. Anand was doing a good job and when she spoke it was not just all talking points. Why do the capable strong women get turfed?
May be conspiratorial biast but was Anand becoming a leadership rival for the PM given his apparent decision to run in the next (tbd) election?
Is the Anand appointment a promotion or demotion? How is Treasury Board viewed as an economic portfolio that voters will respond to? Labour change makes no sense, waste of good minister.
I was surprised to hear about Anand too - that’s a good question. I read a potentially cynical suggestion on The Line’s dispatch today (think it might be behind the paywall so didn’t link but check out all their good work on Substack) that it might be that she’s getting too much good exposure as defence minister and rumours were starting about her leadership potential. She’s too competent to remove but Treasury is a quiet, not too public file. So maybe both?? :(
I’ve heard that AA had leadership aspirations for some time. I doubt that JT would be worried about her succeeding in another portfolio. She seems excited about her new role and one never knows if she’ll make some progress in getting the program money out more efficiently and faster-that in itself would be amazing
"Those might be the two most encouraging moves among dozens, both for Liberals who hope “good communicators” won’t turn out to be a sad joke, and for citizens who hope strong administrators might, even if only occasionally, be put in charge of challenging files." I gotta wonder how many such citizens you'd find amongst the electorate? Who could identify "strong administrators" and/or "challenging files"? Couple dozen?
What about the affable David Lametti - what's the story there?
I admit he's one of the government's mysteries to me. Affable is certainly a good word for him. I hear his specialization in law was actually fairly narrow, and he clearly didn't feel he could rock any boats, so...off he goes, back to McGill one presumes.
I have a different question about having a Canadian Heritage minister or for that matter having a Canadian Heritage ministry at all. If we are post national, why do we care about Canadian heritage? We are pulling down statues, burning churches and bemoaning the non-woke history of our Canadian parents; and yet we are and obsessing about Canadian content.
Bill Blair to National Defence seems to be 2 steps back from the gov’s progressive agenda - and his enforcement background is a square peg in a round hole in regards to how his Toronto experience align.
Well, I’m glad that we have the context of “The army you have”. Coyne on the other hand, is so deep into his cups that he’s forgetting this, and throwing the entire cabinet out with the bathwater. Only the other day, he was lamenting the lack of gravitas of the other side. Or was it Wells? I agree, which is why I’m not awfulizing this shuffle. It’s comparatively far better.
The grown-ups stay in charge, the retirees retire, the fresh new faces get their chance, and the dufuses get their comeuppance. Is that so bad?
I feel positively buoyant about our bright new future!