Housekeeping note: If anyone's wondering, in slightly panicky fashion, "Is he going to write about nothing but the Quebec election for the next five weeks?" the answer is "No." I'll keep up this newsletter's fondness for changing the subject.
You should consider writing an article about the possible vote split between the Quebec Liberal Party & two new Anglophone rights parties. It could be similar to 1989 election, when the Equality Party won 4 seats.
I suspect I'll indeed get to that, once I have a better sense of how big a phenomenon that should be. I'm not an anglo Quebecer, but from a distance it seems less of a big deal than 1989. But then, so did 1989 at first.
In 2014 , the Quebec Liberal Party got 400K more votes than in 2012 when Marois's campaign was derailed by Pierre Karl Peladeau's support for another referendum & the "Quebec Charter of Values". It's similar to Bill 96 & Bill 21. Expect the Unexpected. I recall reading your work in the Montreal Gazette in the late 1980's-early 90s? It was an interesting time in Quebec politics after the Meech Lake Accord was not approved.
The reason Ford won in Ontario is because of his day to day response to the pandemic. Whether what he did was all correct is mute. Every western country failed our seniors in the first months of the pandemic. He was out there and he looked like he cared and was doing his best. Leguault was the same. They are not polished but they are authentic which is a plus to many people in an age of obfuscation.
It is not just that we failed our seniors. It is that there has been no accountability for these failures by anyone for any of it.
Both Ford and Legault deferred to the "science" (aka passed the buck to the pubic service), at the same time as shielding by inaction the same pubic service from any criticism or responsibility for what was going on at the sharp end of the pandemic.
So they show up at the press scrums and look sad and caring and we are supposed to accept that as enough?
I am acquainted with a senior official at the Ontario Ministry of Long Term Care, who swanned through the lockdown beside his backyard pool at $200k pa. The term "failing our seniors" does not do justice to the indifference and neglect by those in charge of this.
I am never surprised when people get angry at our public servants and politicians, but often surprised when they don't get angrier.
Seriously Paul - if you get one question, can you not nail Legault for any of this?
I disagree. Because they deferred to health experts is a good thing. They did what they were told to do and balancing the economy and health did not have a script. On the whole they did the best they knew how. What we learned from the experience will be incorporated into a better plan.
So all of the pandemic planning, the stockpiling of protective wear, any other emergency preparations, the plans drawn up after the first SARS go round, the scores of high salaried public health officers and bureaucrats, the responsible politicians, the ministries responsible for long term care - despite all of what was supposed to be done and was not, you still want to give them a free pass, and say "no one was ready for this"?
No - specific individuals in specific positions failed to do their jobs and discharge the duties and responsibilities that they voluntarily assumed and are generously compensated for. There has been no reckoning for any of this.
Quebec elections can be unpredictable. Virtually no one thought Pauline Marois would lose power in 2014. Mario Dumont looked like a Premier in waiting after the 2007 election, but ended up resigning after the 2008 election. Lucien Bouchard lost the popular vote in 2008 to Jean Charest. He decided not to hold a third referendum after that result.
Duhaime is a skilled communicator. I could see him gaining support with a good debate performance in mid September. Debates in Quebec matter. The "Face a Face" debate with Pierre Bruneau will be very important.
The collapse of the PQ & Liberals will lead a political realignment with Quebec Solidaire being the new PQ & the Conservative Party being the new Union Nationale. There are similarities in strategies between Union Nationale 1976 & Conservative Party of Quebec 2022.
1976? as in the spoiler that gives the nationalist party a stranglehold?
It is hard for me to envision a ceiling for QS much higher than where it is now. They are very far to the left and too wokist for the Martineau/Bock Cote crowd
The one party I don't see discussed very much in the English press is Eric Duhaime's Conservatives. Are they for real, or are they sort of a Rhinoceros Party on steroids? Could they become the official opposition?
News stories say that Eric Duhaime and Pierre Poilievre are friends. What are the chances of Duhaime helping out an eventual Poilievre-led federal Conservative Party?
Anyway, all this feels as if it is happening in a foreign country because it IS happening in a foreign country. Quebec is gone, all except for the legalities. They don't care what happens in the rest of Canada, and by and large the rest of Canada doesn't care what happens there, except for federal politicians, of course.
I disagree. I'm in BC, and my French is terrible, I have never been to Quebec except to the airport and I don't even know anyone who lives in Quebec anymore (I don't think) but I care. This election will not affect me personally in any way but I still care. It is important. And weirdly enough I was caught up in a conversation with two people about this upcoming election in the grocery store check-out line yesterday. People care.
Duhaime worked for Stockwell Day & was a candidate for Mario Dumont's party in 2003. He could help Pierre, who has little support in the Quebec caucus.
I think you could say that about any election in any other province couldnt you? Does anyone in Ontario care what is happening in Quebec, outside a bit of virtue signalling about language or religious symbols?
For example, Canada cannot export LNG to Europe, despite their demand, our supply, and the very high prices, because the necessary infrastructure is missing -- largely due to Quebec's opposition. Canada's choice of immigrants is distorted to some degree by Quebec's obsession with reinforcing French. The probability of minority federal governments is much increased by the existence of the Bloc Quebecois. Constitutional changes are effectively blocked. Pur laine French Canadians are still part of the identitarian puzzle. And so on.
Fair point, but isnt the LNG issue more about Federal politics? If the federal liberals could win seats in Quebec by pushing that through, do you think they wouldn't?
Speaking of LNG, Duhaime sees room to campaign on this. Check his Twitter for campaign videos from the Saguenay. He is pushing the message hard that LNG means great well paid jobs for Saguenay and helps out European allies. This goes against Quebec's lazy green "consensus". I will be very curious if he is tapping into a silent majority, or not, in eastern Quebec.
The Bloc keeps the Liberals in power, because it prevents the Conservat
Good points. Legault wants even more control over immigration selection. The problem is that the immigrants come from may not want to live in Quebec after they are accepted. They are allowed to leave Quebec once they are PR.
If I were Père Legault I would be watching my environmental flank closely as surely the publishing of a list of which companies can exceed QC government pollution standards may bite him. Bonne chance à tous et toutes.
how does it bite him exactly and what are you referring to? Legault generally hews to Quebec's lazy green consensus. If there are a couple of exceptions I don't see him bleeding that many votes to the Libs, PQ or Quebec Solidaire, given the nature of CAQ voters.
Legault is not only gaffe-prone, he’s thin-skinned and has a short fuse. It’s a volatile combination on the campaign trail and the media will be salivating . It would take something like a 7.2 on the Richter scale for him to lose this, but it may not be the crushing majority the CAQ now expects.
Housekeeping note: If anyone's wondering, in slightly panicky fashion, "Is he going to write about nothing but the Quebec election for the next five weeks?" the answer is "No." I'll keep up this newsletter's fondness for changing the subject.
Personally I am more than happy for you to focus on this. Good stuff!
You should consider writing an article about the possible vote split between the Quebec Liberal Party & two new Anglophone rights parties. It could be similar to 1989 election, when the Equality Party won 4 seats.
I suspect I'll indeed get to that, once I have a better sense of how big a phenomenon that should be. I'm not an anglo Quebecer, but from a distance it seems less of a big deal than 1989. But then, so did 1989 at first.
In 2014 , the Quebec Liberal Party got 400K more votes than in 2012 when Marois's campaign was derailed by Pierre Karl Peladeau's support for another referendum & the "Quebec Charter of Values". It's similar to Bill 96 & Bill 21. Expect the Unexpected. I recall reading your work in the Montreal Gazette in the late 1980's-early 90s? It was an interesting time in Quebec politics after the Meech Lake Accord was not approved.
Another good piece.
I have a weird feeling about this one.
Premier Duhaime?
The reason Ford won in Ontario is because of his day to day response to the pandemic. Whether what he did was all correct is mute. Every western country failed our seniors in the first months of the pandemic. He was out there and he looked like he cared and was doing his best. Leguault was the same. They are not polished but they are authentic which is a plus to many people in an age of obfuscation.
It is not just that we failed our seniors. It is that there has been no accountability for these failures by anyone for any of it.
Both Ford and Legault deferred to the "science" (aka passed the buck to the pubic service), at the same time as shielding by inaction the same pubic service from any criticism or responsibility for what was going on at the sharp end of the pandemic.
So they show up at the press scrums and look sad and caring and we are supposed to accept that as enough?
I am acquainted with a senior official at the Ontario Ministry of Long Term Care, who swanned through the lockdown beside his backyard pool at $200k pa. The term "failing our seniors" does not do justice to the indifference and neglect by those in charge of this.
I am never surprised when people get angry at our public servants and politicians, but often surprised when they don't get angrier.
Seriously Paul - if you get one question, can you not nail Legault for any of this?
I disagree. Because they deferred to health experts is a good thing. They did what they were told to do and balancing the economy and health did not have a script. On the whole they did the best they knew how. What we learned from the experience will be incorporated into a better plan.
This comes up on the first page of google searches for "quebec long term care covid":
https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-may-never-get-the-full-story-behind-covid-19-care-home-deaths-coroner-warns-1.5742847
And as for a "better plan", they did not even get to implementing the plan that they had! Nuts. I don't understand how everyone just walks past this.
Read what I wrote. All goverments failed seniors in homes. No one was reafy for this.
So all of the pandemic planning, the stockpiling of protective wear, any other emergency preparations, the plans drawn up after the first SARS go round, the scores of high salaried public health officers and bureaucrats, the responsible politicians, the ministries responsible for long term care - despite all of what was supposed to be done and was not, you still want to give them a free pass, and say "no one was ready for this"?
No - specific individuals in specific positions failed to do their jobs and discharge the duties and responsibilities that they voluntarily assumed and are generously compensated for. There has been no reckoning for any of this.
While what you write is true, it is wild (for a western Canadian) to see how Legault didn't take any damage from the deaths in the care homes
Quebec elections can be unpredictable. Virtually no one thought Pauline Marois would lose power in 2014. Mario Dumont looked like a Premier in waiting after the 2007 election, but ended up resigning after the 2008 election. Lucien Bouchard lost the popular vote in 2008 to Jean Charest. He decided not to hold a third referendum after that result.
true (but you mean 1998 for Charest vs Bouchard)
also: the 2011 Orange Wave
Duhaime is a skilled communicator. I could see him gaining support with a good debate performance in mid September. Debates in Quebec matter. The "Face a Face" debate with Pierre Bruneau will be very important.
The collapse of the PQ & Liberals will lead a political realignment with Quebec Solidaire being the new PQ & the Conservative Party being the new Union Nationale. There are similarities in strategies between Union Nationale 1976 & Conservative Party of Quebec 2022.
1976? as in the spoiler that gives the nationalist party a stranglehold?
It is hard for me to envision a ceiling for QS much higher than where it is now. They are very far to the left and too wokist for the Martineau/Bock Cote crowd
The one party I don't see discussed very much in the English press is Eric Duhaime's Conservatives. Are they for real, or are they sort of a Rhinoceros Party on steroids? Could they become the official opposition?
News stories say that Eric Duhaime and Pierre Poilievre are friends. What are the chances of Duhaime helping out an eventual Poilievre-led federal Conservative Party?
Anyway, all this feels as if it is happening in a foreign country because it IS happening in a foreign country. Quebec is gone, all except for the legalities. They don't care what happens in the rest of Canada, and by and large the rest of Canada doesn't care what happens there, except for federal politicians, of course.
In case you missed it, Paul (I hope first names isn’t disrespectful) wrote the best piece I’ve seen in English on the PCQ : https://paulwells.substack.com/p/la-wild-card?r=dsy9s&utm_medium=ios
Everyone should call me Paul!
I disagree. I'm in BC, and my French is terrible, I have never been to Quebec except to the airport and I don't even know anyone who lives in Quebec anymore (I don't think) but I care. This election will not affect me personally in any way but I still care. It is important. And weirdly enough I was caught up in a conversation with two people about this upcoming election in the grocery store check-out line yesterday. People care.
Duhaime worked for Stockwell Day & was a candidate for Mario Dumont's party in 2003. He could help Pierre, who has little support in the Quebec caucus.
I think you could say that about any election in any other province couldnt you? Does anyone in Ontario care what is happening in Quebec, outside a bit of virtue signalling about language or religious symbols?
I live in Ontario and I care. So should others.
For example, Canada cannot export LNG to Europe, despite their demand, our supply, and the very high prices, because the necessary infrastructure is missing -- largely due to Quebec's opposition. Canada's choice of immigrants is distorted to some degree by Quebec's obsession with reinforcing French. The probability of minority federal governments is much increased by the existence of the Bloc Quebecois. Constitutional changes are effectively blocked. Pur laine French Canadians are still part of the identitarian puzzle. And so on.
Fair point, but isnt the LNG issue more about Federal politics? If the federal liberals could win seats in Quebec by pushing that through, do you think they wouldn't?
Speaking of LNG, Duhaime sees room to campaign on this. Check his Twitter for campaign videos from the Saguenay. He is pushing the message hard that LNG means great well paid jobs for Saguenay and helps out European allies. This goes against Quebec's lazy green "consensus". I will be very curious if he is tapping into a silent majority, or not, in eastern Quebec.
The Bloc keeps the Liberals in power, because it prevents the Conservat
Good points. Legault wants even more control over immigration selection. The problem is that the immigrants come from may not want to live in Quebec after they are accepted. They are allowed to leave Quebec once they are PR.
it’s so nice to read informed opinions here that don’t degenerate into the cesspool we see on twitter.
If I were Père Legault I would be watching my environmental flank closely as surely the publishing of a list of which companies can exceed QC government pollution standards may bite him. Bonne chance à tous et toutes.
how does it bite him exactly and what are you referring to? Legault generally hews to Quebec's lazy green consensus. If there are a couple of exceptions I don't see him bleeding that many votes to the Libs, PQ or Quebec Solidaire, given the nature of CAQ voters.
I see the issue of the Van Horne mine and others (now) ‘allowed’ to surpass provincial norms plus the GNL debate as resonating with voters
Legault is not only gaffe-prone, he’s thin-skinned and has a short fuse. It’s a volatile combination on the campaign trail and the media will be salivating . It would take something like a 7.2 on the Richter scale for him to lose this, but it may not be the crushing majority the CAQ now expects.