Worth considering is the fact that every last Liberal MP is going to have to face the music at Canada Day events in their ridings in six days. They can't hide for a month like they could have in a couple of weeks. Get your popcorn ready...
And what would Justin do exactly if he left politics? BMO and Bay Street don’t want him, he has no skills for them. The only thing he could possibly do is resurrect the WE Charity in his image and give motivational speeches to Rosedale housewives. That’s why he’s staying.
No - they wouldn't. As Phil said above - he has no skills, no network, and no credibiity. Advocacy (steal money) bodies, maybe - but even then, what does he bring to the table - a laughingstock former PM of a country that he pushed down the toilet?
A millionaire former prime minister and son of a former prime minister has no network I find that very difficult to believe. Even after he’s out of parliament can you think of anyone in business who wouldn’t take his phone call?
A former snowboard instructor, part-time drama teacher and engineering program drop-out: what sort of network does that develop? I agree people would take his call - they just wouldn't listen, and wouldn't initiate projects or commit cash. He would be the Canadian equivalent of Prince Harry: son of the King of England, brother to a future King, combat veteran, graduate of one of the world's preeminent military academies, and developer / promoter of the Invictus Games (a really worthwhile undertaking for which he doesn't get enough credit) - and how is that working out for him? He is no kind of mover or shaker, and he has fallen off the A-list.
The shifting outcome in TSP was exciting. But please do spare a thought for poor old candidate Felix-Antoine Hamel, who received exactly zero votes. How's that possible? Did he forget to vote for himself?
I really appreciate that Paul posted this and left it up, despite calling the outcome too early and being wrong.
Real "Dewey Beats Truman" moment -- but I think the analysis is really spot on, in that it describes what would almost certainly had been if Church had eked out a victory. The fact that she didn't is most interesting.
The Prime Minister’s diplomatic adventures and holiday travel has brought a fair share of negative attention over the years. Readers can look at Trudeau’s personal negatives in recent polls and consider this:
In the last two weeks Trudeau:
- played a juvenile stunt with a “slava Ukraina” shoutout in a high level photo op.
- Access to Information revealed a $220,000 in flight catering bill for Trudeau and his 70 plus entourage during his 2023 Indo-Pacific tour.
It is hard to imagine that these two events lifted any spirits as Leslie Church and her volunteers were going from door to door.
Still trying to figure out how the catering bill 220k. Even at 400 per plate, which would be the price at a multi-star Michelin rated restaurant, that’s still only 28,000 dollars. This is closer to 4K per plate which is preposterous.
That the Liberals couldn't hold one of their safest seats even as the NDP vote, normally oscillating between about 15 and 20 per cent, collapsed to near historic lows says a ton.
I’m writing this comment before even half of the polls have reported and barring a surprise protest vote embedded in 10,000 advance polls ballots it appears that Ms. Church will hold the seat for Team Red.
A win is a win in FPTP elections. However, as byelections go for the Liberal Party in the heartland of their voter base, there is no way to hide the fear factor that a humiliating loss just might occur. The Prime Minister, a dozen Cabinet Ministers and sundry Toronto MPs were all roped into the action and even so, it was no romp and CBC declarations of victory by 10:00 pm.
A win is a win, but the Liberals had to get out and earn it. Liberal MPs in adjacent ridings take note. The voters aren’t very happy.
I’m leaving my post above up to illustrate that the Darcy Hickson Decision Desk was WRONG.
I will have to regroup and study my data and see where I got it wrong. I suspect that the early birds who voted in the advance polls were heavily biased towards change.
As of 1:04 Eastern, the Liberal lead is now down to 4.4%. The Conservative vote share is 38%, which is 5.6% higher than in 2011, when Harper won a majority.
So right now it looks like the Conservatives are on track for a stronger majority than in 2011.
The advance polls (which are larger and therefore take longer to count) are being reported towards the end. They were heavily Conservative. The Liberal lead is now 2.2%, and the Conservative vote share is 39.4%.
My ear buds were pulling in the CBC audio live feed of the St. Johns programming while watching the hockey game.
As the vote count dawdled along, a CBC reporter brought his on the ground analysis of what voters in St. Johns had been telling him. He couldn’t recall ONE voter who was casting a Liberal ballot as support for Justin Trudeau’s leadership.
Trudeau claimed last week that voters aren’t in “decision mode” just yet, and further to that he also cast shade on pollsters who were publishing polls by “from people, when they can reach them”.
The Liberal Command Centre has just been delivered an on the ground report of voter intentions and in safe Liberal ridings things are WORSE than thought. It will be an interesting BBQ circuit this summer as MPs assess their prospects to fundraise and find the volunteers needed for a competitive election.
4 am update: well, this is all very interesting. The Conservative has pulled ahead.
A 500 vote lead with 3 polls remaining isn't _quite_ insurmountable, much the same way 2-1 leads in game 7 usually aren't....
... except between the time I started writing that comment and now, it became a 673 vote lead. Pity; I know Leslie and she would have made a solid MP.
I know people who think highly of Don Stewart... but I'll say no more until they count the final ballots.
Worth considering is the fact that every last Liberal MP is going to have to face the music at Canada Day events in their ridings in six days. They can't hide for a month like they could have in a couple of weeks. Get your popcorn ready...
And what would Justin do exactly if he left politics? BMO and Bay Street don’t want him, he has no skills for them. The only thing he could possibly do is resurrect the WE Charity in his image and give motivational speeches to Rosedale housewives. That’s why he’s staying.
Of course BMO and Bay St would/will take him. So would/will any number of international advocacy/rights bodies.
No - they wouldn't. As Phil said above - he has no skills, no network, and no credibiity. Advocacy (steal money) bodies, maybe - but even then, what does he bring to the table - a laughingstock former PM of a country that he pushed down the toilet?
A millionaire former prime minister and son of a former prime minister has no network I find that very difficult to believe. Even after he’s out of parliament can you think of anyone in business who wouldn’t take his phone call?
A former snowboard instructor, part-time drama teacher and engineering program drop-out: what sort of network does that develop? I agree people would take his call - they just wouldn't listen, and wouldn't initiate projects or commit cash. He would be the Canadian equivalent of Prince Harry: son of the King of England, brother to a future King, combat veteran, graduate of one of the world's preeminent military academies, and developer / promoter of the Invictus Games (a really worthwhile undertaking for which he doesn't get enough credit) - and how is that working out for him? He is no kind of mover or shaker, and he has fallen off the A-list.
The Dauphin will, too.
I’ve said this a long time ago - if his resume came across my desk ➡️ 🗑️ Brings nothing to the table.
This column didn’t age well.
Finest scotch!
Dewey defeats Truman ?
Nice one.
The shifting outcome in TSP was exciting. But please do spare a thought for poor old candidate Felix-Antoine Hamel, who received exactly zero votes. How's that possible? Did he forget to vote for himself?
Like Miss Church, I suspect Mr Hamel was not of this Toronto riding.
As far as political protests go this Longest Ballot group has been at lot more clever and thoughtful than what we currently see on Canadian streets.
I really appreciate that Paul posted this and left it up, despite calling the outcome too early and being wrong.
Real "Dewey Beats Truman" moment -- but I think the analysis is really spot on, in that it describes what would almost certainly had been if Church had eked out a victory. The fact that she didn't is most interesting.
The Prime Minister’s diplomatic adventures and holiday travel has brought a fair share of negative attention over the years. Readers can look at Trudeau’s personal negatives in recent polls and consider this:
In the last two weeks Trudeau:
- played a juvenile stunt with a “slava Ukraina” shoutout in a high level photo op.
- Access to Information revealed a $220,000 in flight catering bill for Trudeau and his 70 plus entourage during his 2023 Indo-Pacific tour.
It is hard to imagine that these two events lifted any spirits as Leslie Church and her volunteers were going from door to door.
Still trying to figure out how the catering bill 220k. Even at 400 per plate, which would be the price at a multi-star Michelin rated restaurant, that’s still only 28,000 dollars. This is closer to 4K per plate which is preposterous.
Multiple flights?
It’s one trip though. I’ll give them credit for round trip but still, it’s almost impossible to get that high.
That the Liberals couldn't hold one of their safest seats even as the NDP vote, normally oscillating between about 15 and 20 per cent, collapsed to near historic lows says a ton.
An up and coming political pundit named Yogi Berra once said, “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future”.
Maybe the assumed result was not the actual result (congrats Don Stewart), but yet your message is appropriate. Time is closing in on the Liberals.
For once Paul’s rule was broken / he published a little too early
I’m writing this comment before even half of the polls have reported and barring a surprise protest vote embedded in 10,000 advance polls ballots it appears that Ms. Church will hold the seat for Team Red.
A win is a win in FPTP elections. However, as byelections go for the Liberal Party in the heartland of their voter base, there is no way to hide the fear factor that a humiliating loss just might occur. The Prime Minister, a dozen Cabinet Ministers and sundry Toronto MPs were all roped into the action and even so, it was no romp and CBC declarations of victory by 10:00 pm.
A win is a win, but the Liberals had to get out and earn it. Liberal MPs in adjacent ridings take note. The voters aren’t very happy.
I’m leaving my post above up to illustrate that the Darcy Hickson Decision Desk was WRONG.
I will have to regroup and study my data and see where I got it wrong. I suspect that the early birds who voted in the advance polls were heavily biased towards change.
Life--one big learning curve!
Jumping to conclusions due to wishful thinking is never a good idea.
As of 1:04 Eastern, the Liberal lead is now down to 4.4%. The Conservative vote share is 38%, which is 5.6% higher than in 2011, when Harper won a majority.
So right now it looks like the Conservatives are on track for a stronger majority than in 2011.
The advance polls (which are larger and therefore take longer to count) are being reported towards the end. They were heavily Conservative. The Liberal lead is now 2.2%, and the Conservative vote share is 39.4%.
Good to be listening to Paul ‘live’ on CBC Ottawa Morning now.
My ear buds were pulling in the CBC audio live feed of the St. Johns programming while watching the hockey game.
As the vote count dawdled along, a CBC reporter brought his on the ground analysis of what voters in St. Johns had been telling him. He couldn’t recall ONE voter who was casting a Liberal ballot as support for Justin Trudeau’s leadership.
Trudeau claimed last week that voters aren’t in “decision mode” just yet, and further to that he also cast shade on pollsters who were publishing polls by “from people, when they can reach them”.
The Liberal Command Centre has just been delivered an on the ground report of voter intentions and in safe Liberal ridings things are WORSE than thought. It will be an interesting BBQ circuit this summer as MPs assess their prospects to fundraise and find the volunteers needed for a competitive election.