Trudeau's snap fall election

There won't be one. But here's why the idea won't die

Other people just get haircuts.

It started with a tweet from Conservative pollster Nick Kouvalis and has run rampant through the dead-of-summer punditry: the idea that Justin Trudeau might be planning a pointless election only a year after his last pointless election.

At first I was scoffing. “Election looms” is the classic minority-Parliament dog-bites-man story in Ottawa. But by the weekend I was nervous enough, thanks to the prime minister’s campaign-style behaviour and latest look-at-me haircut, to contact a solid Liberal source. Six weeks before Trudeau visited Rideau Hall to kick off the last pointless election, this person told me the date the campaign would launch. So they’re pretty plugged in. This time they said they’ve heard nothing of an election.

So if you want a prediction, here it is: Spooked by the reaction of an ungrateful nation in 2021, Justin Trudeau won’t try his luck again in 2022.

But here’s the thing: Every time I try to think it through, I think an election now would be in Trudeau’s best interest. So I bet he’s really sorry he blew that lifeline a year ago.

Here, with all my gratitude to those who have already decided to become paid subscribers, and all my fond best wishes to new subscribers, hint hint, is my best current analysis of election pros and cons.