The sprint to July
One day we'll look back on the next month and... I dunno, something
The House of Commons is off this week, returning next week and scheduled to keep sitting until June 21. That’s five gruelling weeks until the summer break. It could well end a few days sooner. Everybody involved with the place will hate everybody else by the time it’s done.
More data points will arrive soon after. The Toronto — St. Paul’s by-election will be held on June 24. The riding’s been Liberal for 31 years and when it’s gone blue, it’s only ever gone purplish: Barbara McDougall! Roland Michener! If the Liberals do poorly with their strong candidate in a riding where Carolyn Bennett usually doubled the second-place candidate, that will be bad news for them.
And the first Biden-Trump debate will be on June 27. It should be obvious within 15 minutes whether Joe Biden’s gamble on a very early debate was wise. I maintain that no outcome in that U.S. race would shift many votes in Canada, but I threw the CNN debate into my long intro anyway because I think it contributes to the sense that omens and portents are gathering.
All of this takes us, more or less, to Canada Day, for those celebrating. On Peter Mansbridge’s podcast last week, Chantal Hébert said (just after 17:00 here) that the last chance for Justin Trudeau to quit and enable any kind of orderly succession before a 2025 election is July 1.
So in theory, stuff’s about to get real.