Terrific interview. I learned a lot about modern polling, and the “precarity mindset” is a great concept I’m going to think hard about. Adding his Substack to my subscriptions.
I don't respond to surveys or political horserace polling and haven't for quite some time.
My main reason is that it is easy to become cynical at the process as push polling becomes more and more prevalent. The questions are designed to shape the outcome and therefore it's also important to know who is financing the opinion shaping.
Secondly, most of the time, polling companies are charging an end user for their services. If a survey is a for-profit adventure then I should be able to monetize my opinion and let the pollster pass the cost along. I remember suggesting this to a polling company representative and it worked magic. I have never been called again.
Former conservatives who backed Carney this time will likely return to their roots if promises aren’t kept. Voters can be persuaded, but not indefinitely.
The NDP collapsed, and Red Tories shifted to a centrist, central banker. The CPC vote percent was above average. I'm not so sure that those centrist voters would go back to the CPC when the choice is Carney or Poilievre.
The next couple of years will decide your question: will Carney deliver on all of his grandiose promises or will he prove to be just another bloviating politician, like the last guy?
The difference between "people who feel like they have something to lose" and "people who don't" is something I try to be mindful of, as a person who thinks about policy and politics and is very much in the former camp.
Terrific interview. I learned a lot about modern polling, and the “precarity mindset” is a great concept I’m going to think hard about. Adding his Substack to my subscriptions.
I don't respond to surveys or political horserace polling and haven't for quite some time.
My main reason is that it is easy to become cynical at the process as push polling becomes more and more prevalent. The questions are designed to shape the outcome and therefore it's also important to know who is financing the opinion shaping.
Secondly, most of the time, polling companies are charging an end user for their services. If a survey is a for-profit adventure then I should be able to monetize my opinion and let the pollster pass the cost along. I remember suggesting this to a polling company representative and it worked magic. I have never been called again.
Another home run Paul. The more we know it seems the less we know.. David's insights are relevant beyond the numbers..
Former conservatives who backed Carney this time will likely return to their roots if promises aren’t kept. Voters can be persuaded, but not indefinitely.
The NDP collapsed, and Red Tories shifted to a centrist, central banker. The CPC vote percent was above average. I'm not so sure that those centrist voters would go back to the CPC when the choice is Carney or Poilievre.
The next couple of years will decide your question: will Carney deliver on all of his grandiose promises or will he prove to be just another bloviating politician, like the last guy?
Did I ask a question?
In any case, all politicians bloviate. I just prefer ambitious bloviating rather than whiny caterwauling.
" ambitious bloviating": can't find that in my Funk and Wagnall...
The difference between "people who feel like they have something to lose" and "people who don't" is something I try to be mindful of, as a person who thinks about policy and politics and is very much in the former camp.
Too much up in the air right now. A shift is happening- but perhaps not in expected ways. Hungary? Beware of confirmation bias.
Interesting perspective Paul. Thanks again.
Great interview! I was surprised to see myself described by Mr Coletto.