The longer he's prime minister
The longer he's prime minister
Justin Trudeau is just going to wait you out.
I’m not sure how to feel when I consider that the people of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, by the time they vote to elect a new Member of Parliament on Sept. 16, will have had no MP for 235 days. Should the rest of us envy them?
David Lametti, the riding’s former MP, can take solace. He must have wondered, until he resigned his seat on Jan. 25, why Justin Trudeau didn’t want him in his cabinet. Now it seems Trudeau was simply in no hurry to have an MP from that part of Montreal at all. Browsing the Canada Elections website, I see that a by-election to replace Lametti could have been held as early as March. In the end, the prime minister waited almost to the last legally-permitted day to call the vote (178 of the 180 available days) and has called the longest campaign possible (50 days versus as few as 36). All of you Liberals clamoring for the PM to do something? Well, you can’t make him.
The Liberals should be able to hold L-E-V, as I’ve decided to call the Verdun riding. Lametti held almost all of his 2015 vote in 2019, and almost all of 2019’s in 2021. The other parties were so far behind that after 2015 they basically stopped spending in the riding. The Bloc, which keeps running second, is the party with the least growth potential: if you’re not already voting Bloc, you’re not likely to vote Bloc. The Conservatives were in fourth place every time. Even if the Liberal vote collapses, it’s likely to go in three different directions. So it’s no wonder the party actually had multiple candidates seeking the riding nomination, just as it’s no wonder the party continues to punish unauthorized ambition by appointing candidates.
As for Elmwood, it’s a lost cause for Liberals. This must come as a relief: it would be silly to blame Trudeau if they lose there again. Part of the riding was Bill Blaikie’s since 1979 until it went, randomly, to a Conservative in 2011 and to Daniel Blaikie after 2015. The other part of the riding is the historic home of social-democrat royalty, from J.S. Woodsworth to Stanley Knowles to Judy Wasylycia-Leis.
So Sept. 16 will pair a contest the Liberals can’t hope to win with another that even these Liberals shouldn’t be able to lose. Since the House reconvenes on that day to mark an end to the summer break, it will be a relief to get off on a good foot, or at least a foot that isn’t a sack of shattered metatarsals.
What will follow the by-elections?